The below graphs are automatically updated daily at 2100
When we look at the whole dataset it’s difficult to see who is actually at risk from COVID-19. The below graphs and analysis shows the data broken down into age groups showing the reality behind the pandemic shedding light on who is at risk.
COVID-19 spread through the population of England and infected every age group. The below graph shows all age groups broken down into 5 year blocks and the number of cases in each age group is shown in the legend. Notice the increase in cases in the under 25’s at the start of October when they started surge testing in schools and universities, because most of these cases were in the young we did not see a corresponding increase in death.
Lets look at the same data in a bar chart to see which age group has been affected by cases the most.
As you can see most of the cases were in the younger portion of the population. This is what we would expect and shows nothing of significance. We would expect the younger age groups to have more positive cases as these make up the majority of the population and exhibit the most mobility. This does not mean that these groups are driving infection. If tests were conducted in a concentrated manor on symptomatic people only, this graph would look totally different. The fact of the matter is that testing asymptomatic people has resulted in a case profile that resembles the age demographic of England where we see the most cases in the more numerous age ranges.
The below diagram is a Treemap of cases in England split up into the different age ranges. Percentages are used rather than actual numbers to make the diagram easier to read.
These percentages are as expected when asymptomatic testing takes place of a whole population due to false positives and the fact that COVID is now endemic within the population. We will find it where ever we look. If we tested flu using PCR we would find the same thing.
COVID-19 affects people of different ages in different ways. We all know that age is the biggest predictor for death relating to COVID-19 however, it appears that most people are unaware of how this age dynamic plays out. Below is a graph breaking the population down into 5 year age groups and showing daily deaths for each age group. The legend shows the different age groups and the total number of deaths in each age group is shown in brackets.
The below bar chart shows total deaths in each age group for the duration of the pandemic.
Now you can clearly see from the above graphs that COVID-19 affects the elderly more than the young. In fact for the under 65’s the amount of death is statistically insignificant considering that we have around 1,600 deaths a day in England from all cause mortality. In fact we found that as COVID deaths increased deaths from other causes decreased at the same rate indicating that there could have been a misattribution of the causation of death.
Let’s have a look at the same data but in a different format. The below Treemap shows the total number of COVID-19 deaths where the area shows the amount of death. For this I have used percentages rather than the actual number of deaths to make it easier to understand.
I didn’t label deaths for the under 50’s as they were so small, I put them all together and then separated the under 25’s (school/college/university age) and displayed those figures. The figure in the bottom left hand corner is the percentage of deaths from people under 25. As you can see this is very small and for this we closed down our schools, locked students up in halls of residence and damaged the health of our young people through the wearing of face masks in schools.
You can also see that deaths from people under 50 is also very small regardless of comorbidities. In fact the death for everyone under 50 is so low it does not, nor ever justified a full scale lockdown that we saw in England leading to many more collateral deaths.
Finally to highlight the difference between the ages the below bar chart show deaths in people 60 and older compared to deaths in the under 60’s. Most of the under 60’s deaths below is in the 50 – 59 age range.
To highlight the age profile of COVID deaths I have included another bar chart underneath looking at deaths for the under and over 50’s. As you can see most of the deaths in the above graph for the under 60’s age group is in the 50 – 59 year olds. The under 50’s have very little deaths with COVID and in-fact when you consider how the deaths are counted you start to understand that these low levels of death is just background noise.
Cases and Deaths per Million People
Please note the below graphs are per million of population and not per million cases in the age groups and is designed as a comparison metric to compare relative risk between age groups.
As of June 2021 the UK Government are making the assumptions that young unvaccinated people are driving COVID-19 cases. Here we will look at time series graphs showing deaths and cases categorised by age and controlled for population. The below graphs will show daily cases and deaths per million people.
The two graphs above show us that when you control for age demographics the younger age groups are not driving transmission and in fact cases per 1,000,000 people is similar throughout the age groups showing that prevalence of this disease is spread evenly throughout the population. You can see this in the cases graph as it is hard to read due to the overlapping of data points. The below bar chart shows this in a clearer way. Showing that the bulk of the population had similar prevalence rates with the exception of 00 – 14 and 65 – 85 age groups where cases per 1,000,000 was lower.
UPDATE: As of July 2021 we have seen an increased amount of COVID cases in the 15-34 year age groups. It is unclear at this stage what’s driving the increase in these cases however it does coincide with large scale vaccination of this age group. With this in mind this age group stands out as having high rates of COVID, this was not the case before July 2021 before this point this age group had similar prevalence rates at around 110,000 per 1,000,000 people similar to the other under 60’s adult age groups.
Cases per million is within 50% for all age groups except 00 -14 and 65 – 85 (and now 15-34). However, deaths are different where the older age groups suffer the most. This has been known for a while however, the below graph shows the high death rates experienced by the elderly population. Per 1,000,000 they have a lot more death than the under 50’s. As of writing we have around 500,000 people older than 89 in England however, this age demographic accounts for over 20% of all COVID-19 related deaths. Once controlled for population that age group has the most COVID-19 deaths by a huge amount.
The 65 – 85 age group appeared to have had some protection up to now as their case rate per million is low. Unfortunately this did not translate to less deaths in these age groups. They had higher deaths per million than the younger age groups even with fewer cases reiterating the age characteristic of this disease. The older you are the more at risk you are. One explanation for less cases in this age group is that most people would be retired and not working, putting them under no pressure to undertake asymptomatic testing. The people in these age groups would only get tested if they had symptoms, perhaps these age groups are an accurate representation of the prevalence of this disease once over testing and false positives are controlled for.
The below bar chart shows deaths per million by age, it clearly shows that we have had very little COVID-19 death in the younger age ranges. This graphs looks similar to the deaths bar chart above. In fact deaths in the under 30’s is so low we can’t calculate it using this metric. Please note that for some age groups the deaths per million is larger than the actual death numbers, this is because these age groups have less than 1,000,000 people in them.
Source for age demographics;
What we Know so Far
Looking at the above graphs its clear to see that the majority of cases have been exhibited in the younger age ranges whether through false positives or genuine infection. This is not new information and we knew this at the very start of COVID.
We can see a disproportionate amount of death in the older age categories making a mockery of current and past COVID-19 policies. Why did the government decide to lockup the entire population for a disease that kill’s just the elderly who make up a minority of our population. You can clearly see in the data that anyone under the age of 50 is not at risk from this disease, the death rate of the under 50’s is below all cause mortality and in line with everyday risks such as climbing a ladder or driving to work.
Looking at the results from non-pharmaceutical interventions it appears that they actually did more harm than good allowing COVID to get into the Care Homes through early release of patients from hospital putting the people at risk who we should have been protecting the most. For more information regarding this read Amnesty International’s Care Home Report.
In fact I can go further and say with confidence that asymptomatic testing of young people drove a case-demic where younger people were getting positive COVID tests and the elderly were dying.
This can been seen at the end of September where surge testing took place in schools and universities. We saw a huge increase in cases in the 10 – 24 year old age ranges however very little corresponding death.
If you track surge testing in the data it appears that when ever they decide to surge test a certain age group or location we start to find lots of cases in that age group or location giving the government data that can backup what ever narrative they want to push.
For instance lets say the government decides to create the narrative of a certain variant affecting a certain part of the country, all they need to do is start surge testing in that part of the country and guess what. They will find lots of cases there. We’ve seen this many times during the COVID pandemic and it can be tracked through the data. In most places cases will be within normal limits until surge testing starts, then the cases will go higher than expected during surge testing. This is normally done in low compliance areas to try and gain a higher level of compliance.
Total death in the under 25’s accounts for 0.12% of all COVID deaths in England (at time of writing) this shows that these people are not at risk from COVID and this does not justify vaccinating this age group in fact vaccinating this age group will do more harm than good as COVID is such a small risk and according to the vaccine manufactures the vaccinations do not stop transmission, prevent infection or provide immunity. Lets remember that the vaccines are not approved, they have been introduced under emergency legislation and if this legislation didn’t exist they would not pass the safety criteria to be approved.
These vaccines have weak safety data compiled under weak phase 2 trials. The phase 3 trials are still taking place and won’t be completed until 2022/2023/2024 depending on what vaccine we’re talking about. They were allowed to skip phase 1 trials because of time constraints and the urgency of the pandemic. If your under 50 why risk taking a vaccine that has no long term safety data and appears to have very high incidents of adverse reactions for a disease that you are not at risk from?